Daily Data back to 1995, and previous two days win the prize for the delta dance. Dangerous days of dramatic deltas...

NOTE: Technical Treatment Data:    COVID-19 Coronovirus / SARS-CoV-2 Virus

March 22 "We'll see you when the Virus ends, for now, ciao ciao, Bambinas! "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3TqXc0wjZI

March 21 - Canada's Unemployment Claims Exceed 500,000,  labour market collapsed.

Economic costs in Canada will likely create greater harm than the virus>

In USA, we are witnessing the attempted systematic, self-destruction of America.  The Americans - like our own selves here - have been unwilling to operate in any sort of sane or sensible fiscal manner.  A wise course of action, at this point in the crisis  - might be to avoid any further economic dislocation, disruption, and tax-assisted government assault against private wealth. 

Of course, this is not happening.  Chuck Schumer has termed any assistance offered to US companies as a "bailout" and has insisted that any such financial aid explicitly not benefit executive or shareholders of industries.  In other words, the owners are to be punished for risk-taking, while the "workers" will obtain taxpayer-funded "bailout benefits".

This man clearly wants to destroy America - or at least destroy it's culture of risk-taking and of individual achievement - and reduce it's people to poverty and  dependence.  He is such a grotesque, dishonest political fraudster, that he makes Mr. Trump look like a paragon of honesty.  That is an impressive accomplishment.

The USA will blow up over $2-trillion dollars *more* of wealth - at a time when it has just vapourized close to $7 trillion in the last two weeks, and since the Democrats are in control of this process - the money will be spent on "beer and pizzas", and little else.     It is not enough that their economy has stopped - Americans will now undertake to inflict greater damage upon it through extremely unwise, knee-jerk financial idiocy.

As in the absurd and foolish GM "bailout", shareholders and risk-takers will be punished and sent the invoice for the coronavirus tragedy, while the dishonest political fraudsters and their parasite client-constituents will get another great whack of free money.

The US Government action, as currently proposed, will just further damage and degrade an already badly broken USA.   Trump has behaved badly, but the Democrats have managed to behave even worse.  

Any money spent now, to  "bailout" workers, but also punish shareholders and business-owners, will just be another, painful, destructive cost applied to the American economy.

Chuck Schumer and the other "Democrats" are going to make sure that the productive, self-financing sectors of the American economy are punished further.  The Democrats look like they want to damage the US economy, so that there will be mass-poverty by November, so that their aged, 77-year old brain-fogged candidate can win the Presidential election, and their group can effect regime-change..   This is really ugly politics.

But they should be careful.  The old rule is: "Never kick a man when he is down.  He might get up and kill you."   The Chuck Schumer Democrats look like they want to kick US business now, when it is down.   Their strategy is very clear.

But the USA has shown it has the ability to survive really bad scenarios.  If the USA self-financing sector survives this ugly assault from nature herself - it might just rise up and reduce Chuck Schumer and the Democratic fraudsters into an electoral defeat at the polls that will resemble roadkill, come this November.  Trump will win, and win big.

Many US people hate Trump.   But Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi make Trump look like a winged-angel by comparison.    Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse - Chuck Schumer Nancy Pelsoi are promising to throw another  TWO TRILLION DOLLAR COST into the lap of the American self-financing sector.  This is just economic insanity.  (Oh wait!  Now, it's TWO point TWO TRILLION DOLLARS!)

These so-called "Democrat" political gangsters truly look like they want to whack the USA.  Or at least cripple it badly, so it's chances for any economic recovery, post-virus, are check-mated.  It makes one sad.  No one will benefit if America is damaged to the point of not being economcally operational.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-congress/u-s-senate-will-seek-deal-on-1-trillion-coronavirus-economic-aid-package-idUSKBN2161FX

This Two Thousand Billion US Dollar cost will be born by businesses, and other productive people operating in the self-financing sector.   It will just be more economic pain for those in America who create prosperity by taking risk, and working for themselves.   The abusive, dishonest, corrupt Democrats want to kick the business owners and risk-takers, when they are down, sick and hurting.  Remember this when the election comes.  

March 20 - 872 SARS-Cov-2 cases in Canada, Total world Cases: 245,484;

Total deaths: 10,031.   Recovered: 86,035.   These numbers from Johns Hopkins University website.    Once proven death total > 10,000, we are now starting to see the Governments panic.  (Johns Hopkins information-page URL below..)

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Russia has almost no cases, because they have no test-kits and no labs that can do the testing.  Japan has a very low case-growth curve, because their gov't policy is to deny access to the test (Source: National Broadcaster NHK - interview with a Tokyo doctor who was told he could *not* test a 28 year old patient with severe flu-like symptoms. )  If Japan ramps up testing, they will see more cases.   This is why - I suspect - Canada had so few cases reported initially.

Anyone who has familiarlity with the math behind the spread of infectious, lethal diseases, knows that the current experience of Italy - right now - will most likely be our picture of things in two weeks, unless we can disrupt the spread of this virus by simple prophylaxis (blocking)  methods - quarantines, stay-at-home, lots of hand-washing, general disinfectant usage, and so on.

The virus is much like internet advertisements versus your browsers "ad-blocker".  If the virus or adverts have a consistant format or shape, the body's immune system can learn to block the virus, like your browsers adblock filter list can do with annoying adverts.  But if the virus can constantly keep changing the configuration of it's binding proteins - like the Dianomi adverts on Reuters.com are now doing (each advert is served using a different unique string, and no URL at all), then the cell's immune system filters can be bypassed. 

The virus invades the body by binding to lung tissue cells, with slightly different configurations of its binding glycoproteins (the stuff at the end of the corona filaments).   This makes the virus much more contagious than an ordinary flu, and even much more contagious than SARS-1.  Research suggests the increase in this contagious ability is 10 to 20 times the ability of the original SARS virus.  This is evolution in action.  Know this truth.  Through randomness, nature can simply try all the combinations on all the locks everywhere.  This process never stops.  And it occurs in all mammals, from mice to elephants.  Most recent evidence suggests the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus evolved in bats in China.

We are fortunate, as we have an explicit example of what this process looks like - the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic.   

This new virus also has a very long inccubation period, so that people can walk around feeling just fine, and yet can be carrying - and spreading - the infection.  Most folks will recover.  But if you get the "cytokine storm", you can suddenly be struck down with aggressive pneumonia - your lungs fill up with fluid, and you cannot get enough oxygen into your blood and you die.  This is where the anti-virals and hydroxychloroquine might help.

Do your best *not* to catch this nasty virus.  Stay home.  Just relax, and stay home.  We want to "flatten the curve", and avoid the rapid, geometric spike in cases that is in the math, if folks keep spreading it to others.   If 30 or 40% of the population all get the virus at once, then the sick will not be able to get treatment, and we could have a high-death scenario, that need not happen.

Trudeau:      " Bring out your Dead!"

Citizen:         "' 'Ere ya go.."

Economy:     " I'm Not Dead!"

Trudeau:       "Hang on there... < *THUMP* >  Oy.  There ya go! "

March 19 - Canada Closing Banks & Restaurants & Stores;

The viral storm has arrived here.  Testing has indicated the coronavirus is well-entrenched in Canada apparently.  Deaths are starting to be recorded.  Checked with my Bank branch, and they said they would be closed today.  So, I took yesterday's trading gains, and withdrew as cash.  Used 99% alcohol to wipe down each bill, both sides.   Then took the funds later to another bank, may need to transfer to a margin account.   Yes, one feels silly.  But the virus can live for *days* on a surface, some have suggested.   Trading opportunities are many, but risk is high.  The portfolios are down by serious amounts.   These are dangerous times.   Take care, stay safe.  And maybe you want to ensure you maintain some liquidity.

US drug-maker Mylan to ramp-up production of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 treatment:

 https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7881c459-34cc-343d-9778-d0c077c8d243/mylan-to-restart-production.html 

March 18 - PM: Details re. "Avigan" (Favipiravir) ;

The drug Avigan (generic name: Favipiravir) is made by Japanese firm: Fujifilm.   Details in link below:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fujifilm-shares-skyrocket-china-says-090303639.html

This drug is one of several anti-virals that has shown both safety & good efficacy in treating Covid-19 (SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus).

March 18 - AM:  Bad, Bad, Not Good (that's the name of a Toronto jazz band) (See note in Web-log section, for some notes about liquidity.  If you survive the Coronavirus, you will want to still have some money left.  It's the economics that is going to harm us most, not the virus.  The virus we can deal with - but the economics is going way wrong, I fear)

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March 17: Coronavirus update: 189,386 cases, 7,504 deaths, COVID-19 clinical trials begin in the U.S.  (Summary information from American news websites.  )

Markets gyrate, unclear if downtrend is broken.   Dow Jones Industrial Average closes up 1048 points to 21,237.  The represents a recovery of roughly 1/3rd of the 2999 point loss on Monday, March 16. Virus continues to spread.  US cases roughly 5,000 with some estimates suggesting the total true case-level could be 10 to 100 times higher.  Exact numbers unknown.

Link to European Centre for Infectious Disease Control, and has clear, hard numbers, and some clear graphics. 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

March 16

gemesys_webpage_V3_scrape_Jan13_2021.txt

: As of 8:43 am, Eastern Dailylight Time:  Total Covid-19 Cases - all World: 167,414, Total Deaths attributed to Covid-19 infection: 6,507.  This gives an estimated death-rate for this virus of 3.89%.

Simple Estimates:  Total global population (roughly): 7.2 billion.   If we assume that 1/4 of the world's population eventually gets this virus, this implies a total-death level of:  70,020,000.    This number of 70 million, is not too dissimilar from the 10 to 50 million deaths estimated for the 1918 "Spanish Flu" epidemic.

Modern treatment methods, public health response, and better technical communication has the potential to drop this number to 10% of the above estimate.  A much more likely estimate of total mortality is around 7 million deaths.    People's behaviour has already changed, and sensible precautions are already being taken.   China has proven that an early, aggressive response can limit the spread of the virus rather effectively.  It is unlikely that similar methods can be effective now globally, for obvious reasons.  The virus is now in the wild, and it will not likely be contained.  

[Update - Mar. 17th]  Total deaths probably will be much lower, given that vaccines are under development, and that a number of drug-combinations are showing efficacy in treating Covid-19.  Total deaths could be  < 500,000 if widespread distribution of effective treatment technology is available.  This is still an ugly outcome, but it is wildly better than the 1918 Spanish Flu estimated mortality level, which has death estimates of 10 to 50 million.

Much more serious, could be the damage done to global economic activity, and world trade.   These costs may ultimately prove to be more destructive, particularly if global conflict occurs and is ramped up in expectation of easy victory.  Human nature has not really changed since Roman times.

Technical Notes:

[Mar. 17, 2020 PM]

[Update:  Gilead Sciences worked in partnership with Chinese health agents - conducted randomized Phase III clinical trials using antiviral drug: remdesivir.   Germany is testing remdesivir (maybe), and reports indicated (unconfirmed) that U.S. Department of Defense is making remdesivir available to military and some civilian employees.  No details on reports of efficacy or side-effects yet.]

[ Followup on Thailand results:  Flu drugs oseltamivir, combined with HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir improved conditions of Covid-19 patients at Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok - but within 48 hours, patient conditions reversed.  No dosage or protocol information, sorry.]

[Chinese news reports a doctor cured/recovered from Covid-19, by anti-HIV drug: Kaletra.   Kaletra is produced by AbbVie.  Also called: Aluvia.  UK has banned export of Kaletra and hydroxychoroquine (the anti-malaria drug which seems to work - and demonstrates effectiveness in physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) (inspection of the drug action in vitro)]

[Korean Society of Infectious DIseases, Korean Society for Antimicrobial Therapy, Korean of Pediatric Infectious Diseases & a Korean Tuberculosis Association all recommend the use of anti-HIV drug Kaletra.    Koreans are also recommending hydroxychloroquine (the old anti-malaria drug)  be used in combination with Kaletra.]

[Mar. 17, 2020 12:54 pm] Chinese recommending Covid-19 also may be treated with Favipiravir, an anti-influenza drug approved for clinical using in 2014 in Japan.    The trade name of the drug is "Avigan".   Zhang Xinmin, who is Director of the China National Centre for BioTechnology Development has said that this drug has shown no evident adverse reactions in a clinical trail, adn that the drug has shown good clinical efficacy aganst the Covid-19 virus.   The clinical trial involved more than 80 patients and the trial was conducted at The Third People's Hospital of Shenzen, south China's Guangdong province.   The trial involved 35 patients taking Favipiravir and 45 patients in a control group.  Results indicated patients receiving Favipiravir treatment turned negative for the virus in a shorter time compared with patients in the control group.   This result was also seen in a randomized clinical run at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, reported Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency.   Zhang suggested Favipiravir be included in the treatment plan for Covid-19 as soon as possible.]

[Kaiser Permanente Research Facility in Seattle, USA State of Washington, reported to have begun clinical trial of investigational vaccine for Covid-19.  Also, a vaccine is reported to have been developed by Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, and is expected to enter clinical trails by mid-April.]

More detail on Hydroxychloroquine:

The technical information below may be important.  Only a few agents are monitoring this page, but this is data that might be useful.  What happens when you get SARS-1 or SARS-CoV-2, (Covid-19) is that you seem to get a "cytokine storm", which is similar to what killed young, healthy adults during the 1918 Spanish Influenza Epidemic.

[Please page down past 5 pictures for regular Web-Log...]

A cytokine storm is a very rapid, extreme bio-response, in which one's body reacts quickly to a very toxic viral agent, with a massive immune response.  The problem, is that one of the characteristics is that a substantial fluid build-up in the lungs can occur.  This is pneumonia, and this reaction can prevent a person from breathing.  This inability to get sufficient oxygen, if it continues long enough, can obviously result in the death of the patient.   Doctors and medical specialists should work to avoid this outcome.

This is a very important academic article, which makes a useful suggestion - the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat a SARS-CoV-2 infection ( COVID-19 disease) viral infection.  Note: SARS-CoV-2 is the name given to the Novel Coronavirus.   COVID-19 is the name given to the actual syndrome/disease associated with the virus. (This information from the European CDC website).

I had earlier indicated SARS-CoV-2 was a name the Chinese medical community had decided on.  My apologies for this error.  SARS-CoV-2 It is a sensible name, as there is great similarity between the SARS version-1 virus, and the current Coronavirus that is spreading globally.  The SARS-CoV-2 is slightly different from SARS-1, in that the trimeric spike glycoprotein at the end of the filament has a hinge-like feature, which enhances its ability to bind to ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzyme 2).   This appears to be the reason that SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is more contagious than SARS-1 - estimates suggest up to 10 to 20 times more contagious.  It's a very nasty thing, and we all need to co-operate to defeat it.

If you are treating COVID-19/Coronavirus patients - please review this article, which was published in Oxford Academic "Clinical Infectious Diseases".  The manuscript is dated: March 9, 2020.  The URL is below:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa237/5801998

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) results suggest a loading dose of 400 mg twice daily of hydroxychloroquine sulfate given orally, followed by a maintenance dose of 200 mg given twice daily for 4 days is recommended for the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 coronavirus) infection.   

Specifically, hydroxychoroquine was found to be more potent than chloroquine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in vitro.    See the article for details.  It can be downloaded as a .PDF file on any tablet, or computer.

Note: On Page 14, the article indicates:

"In addition, an unpublished clinincal trial has demonstrated the therapeutic effect of chloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients.  On the basis of hydroxychloroquine's superior antiviral and prophylactic activity, as well as its more tolerable safety profile in comparison to chloroquine, we believe that hydroxychloroquine may be a promising drug for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection."

Other References:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6483/1260

https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/56895/scientists-demonstrate-how-covid-19-infects-human-cells/

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173

https://www.cell.com/2019-nCOV

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Note: We are *not* physicians.   These notes are a volunteer effort.  These are bio-technical notes only, and should not be considered medical advice.  Consult your doctor if you have a fever and think you might have the Coronavirus.  If you do not have a doctor, present yourself at a hospital or a clinic, and request treatment.  

There are effective treatments for Covid-19.  For some people, the "cytokine storm" (a rapid and extreme immune-system response by your own body) can leave you on the floor, gasping for breath, your lungs filled with fluid.  You really want to avoid this outcome by seeking medical assistance.  Just having access to oxygen, can save your life.  Almost everyone can recover.  With recovery, will likely come immunity, though we don't know yet for sure.  Best of luck.