GEMESYS Research

Research log updates:... (click "Research Log" above to jump to the log-page)

[Dec. 20, 2024] - Your Baby's Gone Down the Plug-Hole
[Dec. 19, 2024] - Error 404 => Future Failure!
[Dec. 17-18, 2024] - Electro-Curious
[Dec. 16, 2024] - Are You Experienced?
[Dec. 12, 2024] - Cyber-Truckin! Really! I'm Most Grateful To Be Not Dead!
[Dec. 11, 2024] - Wayfaring Stranger
[Dec. 10, 2024] - Both Mother and Daughter
[Dec. 06, 2024] - Phasers on Stun
[Dec. 05, 2024] - On The Beach With Suzanne
[Dec. 04, 2024] - Getting It In the Ear - cf. Iggy Pop
[Dec. 03, 2024] - Green Onions - Roasted Or Fried
[Nov. 28, 2024] - Happy Thanksgiving (and a Note on Civil War)
[Nov. 25, 2024] - Atomic Balm
[Nov. 19, 2024] - Hey! Ho! - And Up She Rises!
[Nov. 18, 2024] - Riverboat Gambling...
[Nov. 17, 2024] - Member's Only (It's a Private Party)
[Nov. 15, 2024] - "Swingin'" - by Tom Petty
[Nov. 14, 2024] - Wild World ("Dreamscape Injection")
[Nov. 13, 2024] - Let's Do the (Linux) Time Warp Again!
[Nov. 12, 2024] - Walk the Dog
[Nov. 11, 2024] - Resilience Continued - How I Fixed CentOS-7 and Xorg Server So it Worked Again...
[Nov. 10, 2024] - Astrolabs and Resilience
[Nov. 07, 2024] - Hanging on the Telephone (or from the Telephone?)
[Nov. 06, 2024] - Venus on a Lox and Bagel... or Cities Aflame?
[Nov. 05, 2024] - Child (Just) In Time
[Nov. 04, 2024] - London Bridge is Falling Down
[Nov. 01, 2024] - A Plea in Favour of Market Transparency
[Oct. 31, 2024] - Leverage, Debt and the Floating World of Finance
[Oct. 29, 2024] - Samsung Galaxy Tab A9+ is actually pretty good. VLC works well.
[Oct. 27, 2024] - My Android Apps Loaded on new Samsung Tab A9+ ... Whoo-hoo!
[Oct. 25, 2024] - Clickbait and Real Estate
[Oct. 24, 2024] - The Astonishing Enshitification of Google's Android!
[Oct. 23, 2024] - The Golden Mean (and the Meaning of Gold)
[Oct. 22, 2024] - I Don't Like Mondays...
[Oct. 17, 2024] - Food and Money...
[Oct. 15-16, 2024] - Swim Out Past the Breakers...
[Oct. 09, 2024] - Desolation Row (And The Skank of Nova Scotia?)
[Oct. 08, 2024] - Dr. Geoffery Hinton Wins the Nobel Prize in Physics! Congratulations!
[Oct. 07, 2024] - A Note for You Who Seek the Truth.
[Oct. 06, 2024] - Elon Musk's Speech with Trump in PA. (You gotta watch this...)
[Oct. 05, 2024] - Amazon & EC2 (and this site!) working fine, and now https:// works...
[Oct. 01, 2024] - Fields of Regret?
[Sep. 27, 2024] - Message from the Lizard Brain
[Sep. 26, 2024] - The Devil's Blues (and the Mean-Reds, maybe?)
[Sep. 23, 2024] - Klatu, barada nicto, eh?
[Sep. 17-20, 2024] - Endless Summer
[Sep. 13, 2024] - Run... (Away?)
[Sept. 7, 2024] - Updated the GEMESYS AI projections for our main holding (see below)
[Sept. 6, 2024] - Robots Waving Arms
[Sept. 5, 2024] - Blue Skies
[Sept. 4, 2024] - Rover-Packs?
[Aug. 29, 2024] - Risk is Real
[Aug. 28, 2024] - Sheena is a Punk Rocker
[Aug. 23-24, 2024] - DDG versus Google, How Canada Got Born, Free Trade
[Aug. 22, 2024] - Long or Wrong...
[Aug. 21, 2024] - The Real War of the Coloured Swans
[Aug. 20, 2024] - Rather Hope I'm Wrong...
[Aug. 18, 2024] - The Plan for the Destruction of America?
[Aug. 17, 2024] - Worst Case Degenerate Economcy
[Aug. 16, 2024] - Debt Growth and De-coupling
[Aug. 12, 2024] - Insanity?
[Aug. 7, 2024] - Astronomy
[Aug. 6, 2024] - Markets Fibrillate. October Re-Pricing Expected. War-costs coming.
[Aug. 5, 2024] - Madness of Crowds Accelerates
[Aug. 1st, 2024] - A Very Good Speech
[July 30, 2024] - Overvaluation & The Best Trade Ever
[July 27, 2024] - Wheeee!
[July 25, 2024] - October Surprise?
[July 24, 2024] - Everything's Turning to Shit.
[July 23, 2024] - The Kamala Malady of Malfunctioning Malinvestments
[July 22, 2024] - The Essence of Science
[Update: 16:09 July 21, 2024] Just heard Biden dropped out. Our forecast was off by one day.
[July 21, 2024] - Hey Joe! Where You Going With That Ballot-box in Your Hand?
[July 19, 2024] - Sad Idiots at Crowdstrike Manage to Strike the Whole World, in Mass-Stupidity Deployment
[July 18, 2024] - "Tomorrow Belongs to Me!" (says the Maker-Kid with a Lathe, a Circuit-Board, and a Soldering Iron... )
[July 13, 2024] - Trump shot at rally in Butler Pennsylvania. Stood up, with blood on face and neck. Raised his fist.
[July 11-12, 2024 update:] AI projections negative, but trumped by mild inflation print.

The "Research Log" button has - the research log! You can follow our Perilous Experiments.

With the research log, and our videos, You can follow our Perilous Experiments! Remember: "Vita Brevis, Ars Longa, Ocassio Praeceps, Experimentum Periculosum & Iudicium Difficile." (Trans: Life is short, Mastering the Art takes a Long Time, Opportunity is Fleeting and Falls Away Easily, Experimentation is Dangerous, and Judgement is Difficult.)

Page down to page-bottom, to see our forecasts from our AI, for one of our main holdings. The AI works better than the humans, which is why AI is so popular. Humans are bad investors. They sell at the lows, and buy at the tops. The AI-driven model can do the opposite, since it has no emotions. Simple as that, it is. [Update: New Projection as of March 19st, 2024 - page down to view]

More changes. This is our custom-built Python/NumPy based backpropagating neural-network, fabricated using the matrix-math features of Python (works in both 2.7 and 3.x versions), and here shows now a 5000-epoch training run, with completely different dataset. Graphics show messy training that climbs with poro-poro (raining-down) drop-falls. Although the model trains in a messy way, sliding far off the optimum curve, it holds, and trains effectively. We can now get 80% accuracy, using an economically restricted network, and retraining batchs allow overall accuracy to track around 70%, which is good. And we can replicate the results - it is not just due to fortunate initial random weight assignments. (Click image to expand, ESC to exit (or click a hidden X at top right corner of image to close it)).

I like dogs. Dogs that have been raised in a loving home have an honest beauty that is fine and refreshing. Even dogs that have had hard lives, can be saved and helped. Be good to your dogs. They have real integrity within their honest souls. Rescue a dog if you can. Dogs are good. And Lilly is lovely also!

Trading Full Disclosure [Oct 17, 2024 - Nov. 19, 2024]: We have been in and out several times... I'll save the sexual-jokes for another time. We had some bills to pay off (critical stuff that *needed-to-be-acquired* - wood siding, wood beams, machine-parts, a big 11,000 watt electric-start generator, and so on...), plus more property-tax payments. Life with land, in a high-tax economy, requires cash-flow, so we do our statistical arbitrage thing, and with the AI to help us, we have been avoiding strike-outs.

[Nov. 18, 2024] Fully back in - all in, essentially been long for years now... The long wave stuff continues to perform.
[previous Oct. action..]
*** (9:37 AM) Took profits (really), and currently are out. Driven entirely by the AI's, which are now both pointing down hard (see charts below). *** (10:56 AM) and now back in. Crazy? Cash takeout. From "Dune": "Fear is the mind-killer". It's true. I think the AI's are gonna be way wrong here. We are building an "Elliot Wave" maybe. It could really get a bit extreme, if it runs. (I've seen this movie before...) Excuse me now, while I go throw up... (just kidding) - actually, gonna have some breakfast...

I would advise folks to read "The Battle for Investment Survival", by Gerald Loeb. It's an old book, but it is curiously chock-full of real wisdom. My copy was given to me by a Director of Research, who was my client, at a major financial institution, about 30 years ago. I worked with and for some really good people, back in the day. I was very lucky and am grateful to the fates for how it played, despite my own lack of wisdom. Wisdom comes with age and experience. Funny how that remains the case, as it always has.

Click on the Research log-entry button for more notes on our "Dismal-Science" view of things.

GEMESYS Ltd. Research & Consulting: We Live in Truth, Offer Enlightenment and if your projects and plans are in trouble, we can help you Change the Program!. Make new choices while you still have freedom of action. Do not wait until your option sets collapse into terminal singularities. Act while you have the advantage of actionable choice!

GEMESYS Ltd Research - *Fiat Lux*

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[Nov. 19, 2024] - Been back in as our banks move up... This MPM medium-freq predictor now pointing up.
[Oct. 17, 2024 1047 am] - Oh hell. Back in fully, on a downtick. More dangerous to be out?
[Oct. 17, 2024 - 9:37 am] - Out. Took profits. We are currently very worried, and both AI's are pointing down
[Oct 6, 2024] - Re-acquired same positions at lower price. Risker to be out than in.
[Sept 26, 2024 - update]: AI still pointing up. Unloaded this, smells wrong.
[Sept 7, 2024] This equity in question that we track with our AI, has turned seriously positive, driven by expectations of lower interest rates, and sustained bank profits, despite increases in provisions for possible credit losses.

This is not to be considered an exercise in investment advice. Make your own decisions, please.

[Update: Nov 19, 2024] - The USA election of Donald Trump is a very good thing. It shows (finally!) a reflexive-response to the DEI madness, overt racist nonsense, and general leftist-insanity that has caused so much damage to USA and Western Culture in general. The "Leftists" are a profoundly dangerous and destabilizing force in our modern world, and anything that degrades their toxic influence is to be welcomed heartily.

Banks in Canada risk-manage reasonably well, and have been paying roughly 40% to 50% of their earnings out as dividends for a long time, so for low-to-mid-risk investors, they are pretty much the best local game in town, if one wants to avoid currency risk. We are also (not so secretly) concerned that the USA risked becoming seriously crazy, neo-racist ("Whites of Earth Now!!!" ala Cowboy Junkies first album), and DEI efforts in many companies provides solid evidence of a hard-core clinical-level of insanity. The drivers of this accelerating madness, is unclear. Perhaps it was the Covid-19 virus, and/or the mass vaccine efforts? We do not know.

And yet in history, one sees these periods of collective insanity. It's actually pretty common. The "Cultural Revolution" in China is a good example (again, we did direct research and know of what we speak when we say it was pure insanity), and also the "French Revolution", where a similar madness took control of an entire nation, and mass-murder became a political and cultural project. The rise of European fascism in the 1930's, all across Europe (not just Germany), is another example, as is the rise of the economic and totalitarian madness that was Marxist Communism. (England was not immune. The rise of Oliver Cromwell, the rabid-moralistic "Pikers", the execution of King Charles the First, and the English civil war that induced the initial colonization efforts to America, appears to be another example.)

Entire nations can quite literally go crazy. Civilization is a thin coating of bright social-paint, upon a raging level of latent dark-violence that always seems to exist, just below the surface. And banking, is right up there with whoring, as one of the oldest and most successfully sustainable professions, as long as proper risk-management is maintained. One has to own banks to survive the "battle for investment survival", as Gerald Loeb called it. He understood risk better than most.

(Click on any Image to expand it, ESC to exit image-expansion.)

[Nov. 19, 2024] - gotta update this. AI stuff turned up couple of weeks ago. This 7s Hi-freq. predictor now pointing very up.
[Oct. 17, 2024 - 10:47 am] - Curious. My insane "inner-trader" made me buy it all back lower. My argument for being out just seems like bullshit, on second reading. It just smells wrong. The heat in the economy may lift everything. The problem is that the banks are just making too damn much money, not to own them. It's that simple.

[Oct. 17, 2024] - Out. Took profits. We unloaded a significant position in bank stocks. Both AI's pointing down. This one is REALLY negative, and it is the higher-frequency one. It's flashing yellow warning lights. We are very worried now, as inflation continues to run between warm and too damn hot. Further rate-reductions may not happen. They would be unwise. Rates may actually be moved up a bit, as inflation seems to be everywhere, despite what the official numbers say. If rates are bumped up in the next few months, it will hammer long-duration securities (long bonds and bank stocks, which are like infinite-duration bonds - very rate sensitive. A lot of pre-election liquidity seems to be on-stream (we don't really know), and it will have to withdrawn, post-election, regardless of who wins. The times are actually most dangerous I have seen in my lifetime, truth be told. There is too damn much warfare on now, also. This is just double-plus-ungood - damn foolish, actually.

[Oct. 6, 2024] - Update] - Full Disclosure: Re-acquired same positions at lower price, for cash takeout. Needed funds for required hardware costs, tax payments on property. Curious times. Risk is higher, being out, than in, we suspect. We think Kamala Harris is inept, and Trump will win, as he has actual experience with being a President. This will be positive for Western-World markets. If it goes the other way, we are all screwed, regardless of market postions, so little will really matter. Canada will have to self-correct at some point, and if Trump wins, this process may be accelerated also. Too much is just too silly to continue much longer. But propserity will have to be maintained, so we suspect inflation will run warm, but not too hot. The old "Goldilocks" model... Remember? One needs to be invested, to keep the machines running.

[Sept 26, 2024 - Update] - Full Disclosure: Unloaded this. It just smells wrong. Still too much inflation. We think rate-expectations are wrong - but the AI still points straight up. Rates will have to rise, or inflation will rage like a forest-fire, and do great damage.

[Sept 7, 2024 - Update] This equity in question that we track with our AI, has turned seriously positive, driven by expectations of lower interest rates, and sustained bank profits, despite increases in provisions for possible credit losses.

This projection, automatically driven by our AI model, is typically at a higher-frequency, but in this case, it matches our other, more smoothed, projection. We find when both models agree, the projection seems to have a higher probability of playing out as indicated.

This information is not "Security or Trading Advice". It is simply an honest reporting of our research efforts.
(Click on image to expand it, and ESC to exit expanded image.)

The difficulty of seeing the forest, for the trees, always remains... The field beyond the forest, yields. But the forest is an attractive nest of chaotic action, held in a fine ecological-orbital balance by the forces of destruction, and re-birth. If you look closely, a small maple tree, with yellow-orange leaves, which are being shed for winter, is visible in the lower-right of this image. In time, if left to nature, these trees with leaves, which are shed in Autumn, and re-created in the Spring, will replace and displace this grove of spruce-trees. But if I keep the deciduous trees cut back, and work to protect the spruce, I can keep this grove intact, and it will grow, and I can enjoy the green spruce branches in deep, cold winter.

Nature is *not* to be left to operate randomly. Our job is to manage and manipulate it, and encourage the natural outcome we wish to have take place. Left to it's own, nature simply kills everything. Humans need to understand this basic biological truth. Our job is to make nature serve us. We must not become confused, and invert this key requirement.