[Sept 7, 2024 - Update] This equity in question that we track with our AI, has turned seriously positive, driven by expectations of lower interest rates, and sustained bank profits, despite increases in provisions for possible credit losses.

This is not to be considered an exercise in investment advice. Make your own decisions, please.

Full Disclosure: We remain long, all-in, on Canadian bank equities. We view that they represent sustainable value, and their long history of responsible dividend payouts, makes them attractive for investors seeking yield, and growth-at-moderate-levels-of-risk. This is a difficult combo to locate. They are also reasonably diversified, and typically have effective risk-management operations, and meet or exceed bank capital requirements. This is a key point. Their internal operational procedures simply would not allow a stupid and toxically dangerous situation like what happened to Silicon Valley Bank, for example, do develop.

At least this is what they report, and our own direct investigations so far seems to confirm this truth. They risk-manage reasonably well, and have been paying roughly 40% to 50% of their earnings out as dividends for a long time, so for low-to-mid-risk investors, they are pretty much the best local game in town, if one wants to avoid currency risk. We are also (not so secretly) concerned that the USA is becoming seriously crazy, neo-racist ("Whites of Earth Now!!!" ala Cowboy Junkies first album), and DEI efforts in many companies provides solid evidence of a hard-core clinical-level of insanity. The drivers of this accelerating madness, is unclear. Perhaps it was the Covid-19 virus, and/or the mass vaccine efforts? We do not know.

And yet in history, one sees these periods of collective insanity. It's actually pretty common. The "Cultural Revolution" in China is a good example (again, we did direct research and know of what we speak when we say it was pure insanity), and also the "French Revolution", where a similar madness took control of an entire nation, and mass-murder became a political and cultural project. The rise of European fascism in the 1930's, all across Europe (not just Germany), is another example, as is the rise of the economic and totalitarian madness that was Marxist Communism. (England was not immune. The rise of Oliver Cromwell, the rabid-moralistic "Pikers", the execution of King Charles the First, and the English civil war that induced the initial colonization efforts to America, appears to be another example.)

Entire nations can quite literally go crazy. Civilization is a thin coating of bright social-paint, upon a raging level of latent dark-violence that always seems to exist, just below the surface. And banking, is right up there with whoring, as one of the oldest and most successfully sustainable professions, as long as proper risk-management is maintained. One has to own banks to survive the "battle for investment survival", as Gerald Loeb called it. He understood risk better than most.

(Click on any Image to expand it, ESC to exit image-expansion.)

[Sept 7, 2024 - Update] This equity in question that we track with our AI, has turned seriously positive, driven by expectations of lower interest rates, and sustained bank profits, despite increases in provisions for possible credit losses.

This projection, automatically driven by our AI model, is typically at a higher-frequency, but in this case, it matches our other, more smoothed, projection. We find when both models agree, the projection seems to have a higher probability of playing out as indicated.

Full Disclosure: We still remain long and effectively "All-In" on our bank stocks, as dividends are being paid, earnings are reasonable, and operational risks appear to be *MORE* than adequately managed and reserved for.

This information is not "Security or Trading Advice". It is simply an honest reporting of our research efforts.
(Click on image to expand it, and ESC to exit expanded image.)

The difficulty of seeing the forest, for the trees, always remains... The field beyond the forest, yields. But the forest is an attractive nest of chaotic action, held in a fine ecological-orbital balance by the forces of destruction, and re-birth. If you look closely, a small maple tree, with yellow-orange leaves, which are being shed for winter, is visible in the lower-right of this image. In time, if left to nature, these trees with leaves, which are shed in Autumn, and re-created in the Spring, will replace and displace this grove of spruce-trees. But if I keep the deciduous trees cut back, and work to protect the spruce, I can keep this grove intact, and it will grow, and I can enjoy the green spruce branches in deep, cold winter.

Nature is *not* to be left to operate randomly. Our job is to manage and manipulate it, and encourage the natural outcome we wish to have take place. Left to it's own, nature simply kills everything. Humans need to understand this basic biological truth. Our job is to make nature serve us. We must not become confused, and invert this key requirement.