GEMESYS Ltd Research - *Fiat Lux*
[ Nov. 24th 2023 M-Model's Projection ] This is the forecast our M-model created for the BNS share price, as of close on November 24, 2023. The forecast - prepared using a mechanical AI algorithm, has now swung upwards, to track the market action. We do not expect it to run too far, at this point. There are some technical reasons for this view. What is clear, is that if the Banks can maintain their dividend levels, then these prices still represent a real opportunity, assuming interest-rates are not dialed up into double-digit levels.
Below, is the chart for the higher-frequency 7s model which also now looks *MUCH LESS* grim. We said earlier that we expected a turn from the lower levels, and this has now happened. The AI's are actually quite remarkable, and do a disturbingly good job of forecasting, as they are driven entirely by the market action, and nothing else. They do not get confused or worried, or fearful. :)
This is not to be considered an exercise in investment advice. Make your own decisions, please.
(Full Disclosure: We remain long, all-in, on Canadian bank equities. We view that they represent
significant value, especially considering the very stretched valuations in US equities.)
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[ Nov. 24th, 2023 7s Model's Projection ] This is the 7s Model forecast for our testbed security (BNS), which we hold in a couple of portfolios. This model is a variation with very minor difference from the MPM primary model. It dials up - slightly - the "frequency" of the process the program tries to capture from the data.
This forecast (green line) has also swung upwards. This may be a real turn, or just a reactive response. Should peace and sanity suddenly break out, and USA money-supply shrinkage slow down, this could change things,
Full Disclosure: We still remain long and effectively "All-In" on our bank stocks, as dividends are being paid, earnings are reasonable, and operational risks appear to be *MORE* than adequately managed and reserved for.
It would wise for the Canadian Banking Sector to reduce headcount costs, and focus more directly on shareholder returns. We believe this awareness will eventually become evident to private-sector bankers, as well.
This information is not "Security or Trading Advice". It is simply an honest reporting of our research efforts.
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The difficulty of seeing the forest, for the trees, always remains... The field beyond the forest, yields. But the forest is an attractive nest of chaotic action, held in a fine ecological-orbital balance by the forces of destruction, and re-birth. If you look closely, a small maple tree, with yellow-orange leaves, which are being shed for winter, is visible in the lower-right of this image. In time, if left to nature, these trees with leaves, which are shed in Autumn, and re-created in the Spring, will replace and displace this grove of spruce-trees. But if I keep the deciduous trees cut back, and work to protect the spruce, I can keep this grove intact, and it will grow, and I can enjoy the green spruce branches in deep, cold winter.
Nature is *not* to be left to operate randomly. Our job is to manage and manipulate it, and encourage the natural outcome we wish to have take place. Left to it's own, nature simply kills everything. Humans need to understand this basic biological truth. Our job is to make nature serve us. We must not become confused, and invert this key requirement.