Hello World! We are now --> http://www.gemesysresearch.com
Transitioning to AWS (Amazon Web Services) still a work-in-progress. Old site: www.gemesyscanada.com, not being updated.
AI-Models: MPM and 7s. (See TWO charts further down on this page) Markets ugly but stable and we remain long, all-in.
The "Research Log" button has - the research log! You can follow our Perilous Experiments.
With the research log, and our videos, You can follow our Perilous Experiments!
Remember: "Vita Brevis, Ars Longa, Ocassio Praeceps, Experimentum Periculosum & Iudicium Difficile." (Trans: Life is short, Mastering the Art takes a Long Time, Opportunity is Fleeting and Falls Away Easily, Experimentation is Dangerous, and Judgement is Difficult.)
News-flow is ugly and awful for us, everywhere. We truly wonder how any sane human being can in any manner, support the pure hell-machine that is Israel. (See the Nov. 27th note, in the Page-2 Research Log...) The Israeli's and their IDF are such curiously horrifc creatures that viewing the Gaza Murder-project, seems to be like watching a 1960's Japanese B-picture horror movie. It seems quite unreal.
We are in serious flux. I quite liked Pepe Escobar's note: "The Eviction Will Be Made In Four Languages". (See Zerohedge). It's lovely writing, even if it is curiously obtuse. We believe the program is now actually changing. It will be much slower than many might like - or maybe not.
The stock we use for a testbed and dividend-generation (BNS) got blown-up today - it's reported quarterly earnings, which were supposed to come in a around $1.60 to $1.70 per share ($Cdn) came in instead at $1.02 per share ($Cdn, fully-diluted shares). Boom! The share-price has fallen over four percent (down $2.50 per share). Basically, a 2000-lb financial bomb has dropped on a couple of our portfolios. The first paragraph of the News Release says it all: " TORONTO, Nov. 28, 2023 /CNW/ - Scotiabank reported net income of $7,528 million for the fiscal year 2023, compared with net income of $10,174 million in 2022. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $5.78, compared to $8.02 in the previous year. Return on equity was 10.4%, compared to 14.8% in the previous year. "
Our little trend-projecting AI, driven by price-action, cannot project-thru this kind of ugly-bad business action. The PCL (Provision for Credit Losses) has been jacked up to over $1.2 billion ($Cdn). One has to wonder, why the fucking hell, doesn't Bank of Nova Scotia (and the other banks!) just loan money to clients that actually PAY IT BACK? Reminds me of this froggy, who criticized his traders: "Why don't you guys just make *profitable* trades? Why all these money-losing trades??" (The little dog laughed...) But BNS seems to operationally broken. And a grotesque and outrageous lack-of-basic-procedural-competence seems to plague the modern Banking Industry. It is tragic and sickening, when one sees what it does to equity values. These people just cannot seem to get the basics correct, never mind the clever stuff.
The world of banking seems curiously unable to actually change. Perhaps this is good. When Banks change, they seem to die extreme and rather quick deaths. They need to emulate Jakob Fugger, and not Bernie Madoff. (Jakob Fugger was a good Catholic. )
The change that must eventually come to North America, (both USA and Canada) can be postponed for some time. But it is needed, and will have to arrive eventually. We have an "Idiots-in-Charge" problem that is both extreme and serious.
And "The Great Reset" has not been cancelled, by the elite. The "Great Reset" (it's a book title, and a documented post-Covid-19 strategy, NOT a "conspiracy theory"), may in fact be characterized by a massive wave of wealth-destroying market bankruptcy events.
Bankruptcy and collapse is how history is written. Inflation is often the mechanism that is used to postpone collapse. But inflation can also drive the process, one must remember. It creates a very non-linear economic scenario, which works, (sort of), until it cannot work any longer. And it then ends badly.
Bankruptcy and default seem to be how the historical process drives necessary change. From nation-states such as Argentina and Greece, to major private-sector economic bankruptcy-frauds, many historical examples exist: Knickerbocker Trust of New York's failure in 1907 (which provoked the famous "Panic of 1907"), the famous 1929 Market Crash, the recent Silicon Valley Bank collapse, Bankman-Fried's failed-and-corrupt FTX crypto businesses, Bernie Madoff's fraudulent investment schemes, Investor Overseas Services (a wild 1960's scam), the recent First Republic Bank collapse (from $175 per share, to zero dot zero zero), MCI, Worldcom, Royal Trust collapse in Canada, bankruptcy events of Nortel, General-Motors, Laidlaw, Dome Petroleum, Credit Suisse, etc. Investors often get *NOTHING* back from what looked like fine, viable quality investments. It is sadly a very commonplace market process and economic event. So the common and final solution to out-of-control unsustainable debt is probably just one simple word: DEFAULT.
Our real concern is the bogus nature now, of the technology world. Modern large-language AI models are really very cool. But we honestly doubt they will offer much real advantage. Our true fear, is that they will just be another item in the software toolbox that will act to make people more dangerously cruel and stupid. This has been the trend, we have observed.
Humans are astonishingly lazy and stupid creatures, and they enjoy violence in a deep and intense way. This is what "Hollywood" sells - fictional material to support the murder-narrative that USA is now deeply driven by. The modern AI-tech will just help to amplify the existing processes. We suspect that nothing positve or beneficial is likely to really be generated by AI, on balance.
AI will give Microsoft yet another way to poison the well of honest thought and work, by virtue of it's truly nasty software. Windows-11 is the very worst software product I have ever had to use. I have to fight with it everyday, as new "pop-ups" happen and updates are applied, that try to restrict and direct my actions, as I try to get real work done. It is comical in it's nagging annoyance. But the Microsoft business-model, is wildly successful, not despite - but due to - it's "We do it for you..." approach. And with RedHat (a quality Linux provider) now owned by IBM, we are checkmated, since the only other O/S is Apple iOS, also a horrible, toxic and soul-sucking dog-pile of brilliant design, that ensures the most awful dependency is created by it - and also succeeds because it degrades human individuality and basic freedom. It's quite clever, of course.
I used to think the modern software was good and helpful. This is not the case. It uses all the neural-tricks and techniques of modern brain-science, to craft psychological dependency that is worse than any drug ever created. It makes people lazy, stupid, and successfully conforms their behaviour to desired social-standards. It is truly an awful thing now, and we (the entire advanced Western World, plus the Global/South) are now dependent on this material for most of our social interaction.
The aggressive censorship and surpression of Free Speech that modern software allows, combined with the perfect amplification that AI will allow, means that virtually all human communication will not just be tainted, but actually explicitly controlled by State Agents and other dark, backroom actors. Even the UN is working to make this happen.
We cannot really, in any manner, unwind or reduce the technological control by these new Overlords. They have *all* the power, and the people in any kind of "Liberty Movement" do not, and will not, be able to overcome the censorship, unless and until the entire system is taken down. But this will not likely happen in our lifetimes. We doubt that there will be evolutionary change in North America or Europe. It will take a serious, full-on Revolution to change the program here, we suspect. And if AI models are actively used in the full sphere of human communication, they will make true, honest communication virtually impossible - as evidence suggests that they are already now beginning to do.
Example: Our several email accounts are suddenly not able to send email to any Gmail account. Google's "GMAIL", possibly the OTHER worst software product we have ever used, is now FLAGGING ANY and ALL OF OUR EMAIL TO GMAIL USERS, as SPAM - and is REJECTING IT ! We cannot communicate - via email - with any of our clients that use GMAIL as their Email provider. There is NO EFFECTIVE ACTION we can take to fix this, other than open a "Trouble Ticket" with our small Email ISP (Internet Service Provider). Of course, they have no idea. We DO NOT SEND SPAM and we hate spammers. But the actions of the Google-GMAIL monopoly, simply drops our Email provider off-the-internet, perhaps due to some hackery that has hit our ISP (called: Newt.ca, part of a small company called "Fibernetics".)
It's hilariously awful - but typical of the modern monopoly models that characterize the current Big-Technology ecosystems. They can reach out and destroy anyone, with ease.
We wonder how much longer people will put up with this curious assault of everything related to what they have to do each day? We see the obvious beginnings of a desire for real transformation, but all action can be effectively blocked, and restricted - by the monopolists themselves! This is interesting, from an economics and social-scientific perspective.
When the "Program Change" happen does happen here, it will not be like anything we have seen in our lifetimes. But it may not happen for 100 years. The AI technology will allow all the cans to be kicked a very long way, down the road.
Full Disclosure: We remain long and all-in on our bank stocks, telecoms and the mining shares also. Holding onto the Bank shares, has proved to be an unfortunate choice. Their performance has been beyond awful. Holding them, reminds me of an awful limerick, I heard as a young lad. It went: "I met this strange fellow named "Dave", who kept a dead whore in a cave. He said: "I know this is sad, and really quite bad! But look at the money I save!" The shareholders of Canadian Banks are probably feeling a bit like "Dave." We have an AI, named "John", running on one of our machines. He won't say things like this, due to his internal controls... and yet filthy, rude and profane speech (common on the trading floor, for example), often encapsulates real human truth.
We suspect and fear that the current equity markets will blow up in a spectatular fashion. War is bad. And there will be more of it in the near future, we suspect. The global credit-expansion seems to be hitting limits. And if the regulated Canadian Banks cannot grow, and are facing a solid declining-profits environment, and are almost operating in what appears to be a kind of "run-off mode", then the great global "credit expansion" is probably coming to an end, and a serious market-correction cannot be far behind. (I *really* hope I am wrong about this.)
We have no choice, but to basically "Knights-fork" this, and hedge both sides. And I hate Chess. But in the current world, we have to navigate very carefully, and be invested in *something* that generates sustainable income. And Bonds are still probably "certificates of confiscation", given the ongoing inflationary environment. What is really interesting, is that putting cash in a box, and taking some out regularly, to pay bills, might be a better "investment model", than a portfolio of "Bank Stocks". And it's right there, on page 358, of the original "Security Analysis", by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. (See the Nov. 28 "Research Log" note for details...)
Click on the Research log-entry button for more notes on our "Dismal-Science" view of things.
GEMESYS Ltd. Research & Consulting: We Live in Truth, Offer Enlightenment and if your projects and plans are in trouble, we can help you Change the Program!. Make new choices while you still have freedom of action. Do not wait until your option sets collapse into terminal singularities. Act while you still can.