GEMESYS Research

Research log updates:... (click Research Log for details)
[July 25, 2024] - October Surprise?
[July 24, 2024] - Everything's Turning to Shit.
[July 23, 2024] - The Kamala Malady of Malfunctioning Malinvestments
[July 22, 2024] - The Essence of Science
[Update: 16:09 July 21, 2024] Just heard Biden dropped out. Our forecast was off by one day.
[July 21, 2024] - Hey Joe! Where You Going With That Ballot-box in Your Hand?
[July 19, 2024] - Sad Idiots at Crowdstrike Manage to Strike the Whole World, in Mass-Stupidity Deployment
[July 18, 2024] - "Tomorrow Belongs to Me!" (says the Maker-Kid with a Lathe, a Circuit-Board, and a Soldering Iron... )
[July 13, 2024] - Trump shot at rally in Butler Pennsylvania. Stood up, with blood on face and neck. Raised his fist.
[July 11-12, 2024 update:] AI projections negative, but trumped by mild inflation print. Our two AI projections for our Bank-stock still point down, but the market is driven by the macro factors of inflation. The June inflation print was mild, suggests that USA inflation is now under control. Rate cuts are now expected, before the big November election. All is fine, except for the early-stage Alzheimers guy, "Genocide Joe", who is helping Israel with it's mass-murder ethnic-cleansing project in Gaza.

We confess to being mystified by the scale and the extent of the foolishness, madness and all-in over-the-top pure evil we observe now. The Americans are enabling the mass-murder of little kids and women by the Israelis. Can USA political people really believe this is acceptable? Can they not imagine what USA would do, if such actions were visited upon American cities by invading forces?

Our source for this is the BBC, which has published detailed accounts of the atrocities the Israeli IDF are carrying out. The Israelis are using the "Lavender" AI program, to help them kill at scale. This is ugly. Current deaths now exceed 38,000 Gaza citizens. This is not warfare. This is just old-fashioned race-based mass-murder.

The details and the photos and videos of what is going on, are mostly hidden from the American people who are funding this exercise. The first black-and-white true photos of the US Civil War, helped end it. The ditches filled with bodies of hundreds of young soldiers, was not the heroic picture of the flying flags and bands playing. War is dirty, angry, tragic death - sometimes necessary to address evil - but never a good thing. We should look it clearly in the face, and see it for what it is.

The Gaza Murder War is so astonishingly awful that it will change the course of World history, probably for the next hundred years. And America is funding this project, giving the Israeli's the means to execute the slaughter. In Iraq, Afghanistan and now Gaza, the USA has enabled mass-murder at scale. We view this as an unwise political strategy. It damages America.

What is fascinating, is how the markets are completely ignoring the atrocity of the Gaza War. We believe this awful race-based mass-murder exercise will do lasting and serious damage to America. Imperial Rome was seriously powerful, and wildly effective - but it was eventually beaten and the city of Rome was sacked and burned multiple times. What the Jews of Israel are doing, and American Jewry is actively funding, shows the true face of these people. No amount of programmed shouts of "anti-semitism" by robot-AI's and clever propagandists can hide the wild mass-murder that is taking place, or erase the stain of this atrocity.

What is curious is that very few in America recognize the strange and open-ended risk their own nation is taking. The 9/11 Terror Attacks were *trivial*, compared to what a real war against USA might look like. I do not want to see the USA degraded or destroyed, but with "Genocide Joe" Biden sending his bombs to kill women and kids at scale, the whole picture of what USA is and will be in the future, is now changing into something that looks very wrong. Maybe a President Trump can stop this trend.

The "Research Log" button has - the research log! You can follow our Perilous Experiments.

With the research log, and our videos, You can follow our Perilous Experiments! Remember: "Vita Brevis, Ars Longa, Ocassio Praeceps, Experimentum Periculosum & Iudicium Difficile." (Trans: Life is short, Mastering the Art takes a Long Time, Opportunity is Fleeting and Falls Away Easily, Experimentation is Dangerous, and Judgement is Difficult.)

Page down to page-bottom, to see our forecasts from our AI, for one of our main holdings. The AI works better than the humans, which is why AI is so popular. Humans are bad investors. They sell at the lows, and buy at the tops. The AI-driven model can do the opposite, since it has no emotions. Simple as that, it is. [Update: New Projection as of March 19st, 2024 - page down to view]

More changes. This is our custom-built Python/NumPy based backpropagating neural-network, fabricated using the matrix-math features of Python (works in both 2.7 and 3.x versions), and here shows now a 5000-epoch training run, with completely different dataset. Graphics show messy training that climbs with poro-poro (raining-down) drop-falls. Although the model trains in a messy way, sliding far off the optimum curve, it holds, and trains effectively. We can now get 80% accuracy, using an economically restricted network, and retraining batchs allow overall accuracy to track around 70%, which is good. And we can replicate the results - it is not just due to fortunate initial random weight assignments. (Click image to expand, ESC to exit (or click a hidden X at top right corner of image to close it)).

Things are going wildly wrong in an number of curious areas. Really wild, crazy stuff that most folks are not even aware of. USA politics is insane, and Canada seems determined to self-destruct many of it's operationally successful traditions. And we are no different than the rest of the Western world, which seems to be tracking this curious "Let's Destroy it All!" Leftist political model. USA has a crazy old mubble-coot pretending to be the "Big Guy", and his only competition - is another old guy that folks are worried about. It's way past insane.

It's like that South Park episode, where Kyle realizes that yes, everthing REALLY IS turning to shit.

This bodes badly for the future, we suspect. Two of our most conservative holdings - a big bank and a big phone-company - are had their share-prices discounted like they are just bloody well going out of business. This is just a tad insane. We believe they will both survive and prosper.

But it now is all part of the modern "Scam-scam-scam and take all the Jam!" economic model that prevails now. And it's dangerous. When what's left of the middle-class feels maybe it's time to man the barricades, then the fat-bastards who run the State, will find they have a problem. (The original line to Leonard Cohen's song was maybe: "Long live the State and the Little French Maids! But when the Fire begins, we can Work Hard till it Fades!"

I find that the more I have to interact with folks in cities, obnoxious Agency-actors on the internet, curious Government officials and dishonest big-tech corporate entities, the more I enjoy the company of dogs. Dogs that have been raised in a loving home have an honest beauty that is fine and refreshing. Even dogs that have had hard lives, can be saved and helped. Be good to your dogs. They have real integrity within their honest souls. Rescue a dog if you can. Dogs are good.

Full Disclosure: We STILL remain long and all-in on our bank stocks, telecoms and the mining shares also. Holding onto the Bank shares, has proved to be a less-than-optimal choice. Their performance this year, has been pretty awful. We expected them to recover, they did, and then now have turned down hard. We are still holding. (or "hodling" as Mr. Musk might say..) Curious times, with war, economic uncertainty, bad leaders, and magical technology.

Click on the Research log-entry button for more notes on our "Dismal-Science" view of things.

GEMESYS Ltd. Research & Consulting: We Live in Truth, Offer Enlightenment and if your projects and plans are in trouble, we can help you Change the Program!. Make new choices while you still have freedom of action. Do not wait until your option sets collapse into terminal singularities. Act while you still can.

GEMESYS Ltd Research - *Fiat Lux*

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[Jul 4, 2024 - Update] This equity in question that we track with our AI, crossed the $70 level and then turned south. This intermmediate-term process continues to track negative. We think that it might have reached a turning-point, but the AI is still projecting downward, as are some of our other projections.

This is not to be considered an exercise in investment advice. Make your own decisions, please.

(Full Disclosure: We remain long, all-in, on Canadian bank equities. We view that they represent significant value, especially considering the very stretched valuations in US equities. But this decision has come with real opportunity costs, and has clearly been sub-optimal. A more profitable strategy would have been to follow the AI's and use short-term positioning. This is a key result of our experiments. These interest-sensitive equities are dangerous vehicles for long-term investors. "Buy and Hold" can be a high-risk strategy, despite the attractive dividend yields. One can lose more capital, than one gains in dividends. We had expected this Canadian bank to show more operational effectiveness. We were mistaken, as this assumption proved to be incorrect and unwise. In the last 18 months, it appears that BNS has dumped roughly 32 million new "treasury shares" onto the market, and this of course has hammered down the share price. We are surprised the Toronto Stock Exchange allows this kind of sharp practice, which so obviously harms existing BNS shareholders.)

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[ Jul. 4 2024 update: ] Model pointed to and market reached 70, model turned down before 70 was reached, and correctly forecast a turn. I did not believe it likely, and the turn was intense, from 70 to 63 level. Market changed, inflation came in hot, and rate-reductions pushed out to Sept-Oct. timeframe. US-election looks to be very strange - neither guy is really wanted - folks will likely hold their noses and vote for Trump, who will be likely checkmated by some force we cannot predict - we just expect it to happen. Israeli mass-murder campaign in Gaza is out of control, and the Biden-Administration actions do not seem rational. Funding Israel with weapons that enable mass-murder is quite honestly insane, we believe. This degrades America. Ukraine needs weapons for honest defense. Israel is just killing kids and girls because it is running on hate. This bodes badly for the future. America has lost it's way, but it is enjoying a debt-fueled run-up in share-prices. Interest payments on USA gov-debt exceed $1000 billion per year now. USA dollar remains the world reserve currency. America can basically write cheques to buy stuff, that folks don't cash. Eventually, this Imperial model reaches limits. When it hits a limit, it will all probably change quickly, and many will be surprised.

The forecast (green line) was reflecting the possibility of a sustained upturn in share-price back in March. Now, it is pointing down.

Full Disclosure: We still remain long and effectively "All-In" on our bank stocks, as dividends are being paid, earnings are reasonable, and operational risks appear to be *MORE* than adequately managed and reserved for.

This information is not "Security or Trading Advice". It is simply an honest reporting of our research efforts.
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The difficulty of seeing the forest, for the trees, always remains... The field beyond the forest, yields. But the forest is an attractive nest of chaotic action, held in a fine ecological-orbital balance by the forces of destruction, and re-birth. If you look closely, a small maple tree, with yellow-orange leaves, which are being shed for winter, is visible in the lower-right of this image. In time, if left to nature, these trees with leaves, which are shed in Autumn, and re-created in the Spring, will replace and displace this grove of spruce-trees. But if I keep the deciduous trees cut back, and work to protect the spruce, I can keep this grove intact, and it will grow, and I can enjoy the green spruce branches in deep, cold winter.

Nature is *not* to be left to operate randomly. Our job is to manage and manipulate it, and encourage the natural outcome we wish to have take place. Left to it's own, nature simply kills everything. Humans need to understand this basic biological truth. Our job is to make nature serve us. We must not become confused, and invert this key requirement.