AI-Models: MPM and 7s.
[Junef 3, 2024 update:] Cracking Big Nuts.
Everything is breaking for many average folks. Technology is breaking in ways that are comical and awful. Economics and finance are broken. Rising rates mean rising costs for anyone with debt that is reseting to the new rate-regime, and a slow-crushing for folks with fixed-income (or semi-fixed) incomes from financial assets (bonds and dividend-paying stocks). The bent (semi-inverted) yield curve (two-year yields higher than 10-year yields) means money is tight, wages are flat (or falling) and most cash-generating financial assets are being repriced lower (again.. and then again...) This grinding process risks teeing up a generalized economic collapse. And the technology of critical stuff like cars and communications systems, is so badly designed, that it is just nuts. See the "Lincoln Rant" below. And More details on the Research Log.

The "Research Log" button has - the research log! You can follow our Perilous Experiments.

With the research log, and our videos, You can follow our Perilous Experiments! Remember: "Vita Brevis, Ars Longa, Ocassio Praeceps, Experimentum Periculosum & Iudicium Difficile." (Trans: Life is short, Mastering the Art takes a Long Time, Opportunity is Fleeting and Falls Away Easily, Experimentation is Dangerous, and Judgement is Difficult.)

Page down to page-bottom, to see our forecasts from our AI, for one of our main holdings. The AI works better than the humans, which is why AI is so popular. Humans are bad investors. They sell at the lows, and buy at the tops. The AI-driven model can do the opposite, since it has no emotions. Simple as that, it is. [Update: New Projection as of March 19st, 2024 - page down to view]

(Note: If you are running an OLD browser, and this button does not work, you can view our Research Log page by clicking on: http://www.gemesysresearch.com/Gemesys_Page_2.html )

More changes. This is our custom-built Python/NumPy based backpropagating neural-network, fabricated using the matrix-math features of Python (works in both 2.7 and 3.x versions), and here shows now a 5000-epoch training run, with completely different dataset. Graphics show messy training that climbs with poro-poro (raining-down) drop-falls. Although the model trains in a messy way, sliding far off the optimum curve, it holds, and trains effectively. We can now get 80% accuracy, using an economically restricted network, and retraining batchs allow overall accuracy to track around 70%, which is good. And we can replicate the results - it is not just due to fortunate initial random weight assignments. (Click image to expand, ESC to exit (or click a hidden X at top right corner of image to close it)).



Virtues of Capitalism - It Likes Truth and Fair Dealing

I found out what has happened to the shares-outstanding number at Bank Nova Soctia. The bank is pumping out "treasury shares" as part of it's Dividend Re-Investment Plan - roughly 32 million NEW shares in the last year! See the tiny footnote on page 78 of the BNS Q2-2024 Quarterly Report, under the "Share Capital" section. This is an unwise thing to do. We believe the Bank should be buying back outstanding shares, not printing up new ones and then offering these as "dividends". This hurts existing shareholders, and acts to drive down the share price. It is solid mistake, on several levels, for BNS Shareholders, and for Canada. (See the Research Log for details, June 11, 2024 note.)

We don't like little tricks like this. Our AI stuff works - but it cannot deal well with a borked process, where active agents are seeking to mislead. AI needs accurate, honest data, or it can be fooled effectively, and you will be fooled if you use it. Without honest data, we cannot move foreward.

So much everywhere, is broken now or not working correctly. You have to do so much more now, but you get much less value, as opportunity costs increase, criminality flourishes, and the technology becomes more abusive and intrusive in it's basic operational characteristics. Information is hidden or obfuscated, and bad behaviour by self-interested double-dippers is enabled.

The big, obvious risk now, is that it appears that our advanced technology is no longer helping us - the technology we rely upon, has morphed now into a complex tool that is being used by powerful agency forces and sophisticated entities to monitor, control, restrict and mis-direct much human behaviour. Things are now *designed* to be bad. Processes are designed not to work, and are crafted to create obfuscation and mis-direction.

We see the internet becoming more bad than good. Sometimes, (like in the example of Amazon) it can work well. Amazon is the one good thing I find left on the 'net. But so very much else has turned to nasty slop.

So, as the World is running down, we make do with the best of what's still around? Not very original, is this? But this is all we can do. Connect only lightly. Expect to be lied to. Avoid the scammers, and verify, verify and verify. All is being weaponized now. Know that this expands risk, and limits opportunity. Learn to do more, with less. Focus on being effective, and actively managing risk.

I find that the more I have to interact with folks in cities, obnoxious Agency-actors on the internet, abusive Government officials and cash-seeking corporate entities, the more I enjoy the company of dogs. Dogs that have been raised in a loving home have an honest beauty that is fine and refreshing. Even dogs that have had hard lives, can be saved and helped. Be good to your dogs. They have real integrity within their honest souls. Rescue a dog if you can. Dogs are good.

[ Picture of Lily ... ]

Here is a picture of me and Lily, the Big Dog who is just a fine girl. She is so pretty! She belongs to a friend and his partner, Linda, who have the big House of Perfect Beauty, in the most lovely part of God's Country. Lily likes me, and I like her. But she is quite big for the lap. :)


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Full Disclosure: We STILL remain long and all-in on our bank stocks, telecoms and the mining shares also. Holding onto the Bank shares, has proved to be a less-than-optimal choice. Their performance this year, has been pretty awful. We expected them to recover, they did, and then now have turned down hard. We are still holding. (or "hodling" as Mr. Musk might say..) Curious times, with war, economic uncertainty, bad leaders, and magical technology.

Click on the Research log-entry button for more notes on our "Dismal-Science" view of things.


GEMESYS Ltd. Research & Consulting: We Live in Truth, Offer Enlightenment and if your projects and plans are in trouble, we can help you Change the Program!. Make new choices while you still have freedom of action. Do not wait until your option sets collapse into terminal singularities. Act while you still can.

GEMESYS Ltd Research - *Fiat Lux*

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[Apr 24, 2024 - Update] This equity in question that we track with our AI, acrossed the $70 level and then turned south. I'll post the charts when I get some time. Our AI projected the turn south, before it happened, but we did not change our position. Probably an error. We are concerned about this market. Yield curve remains inverted, inflation remains high. Taxes are being increased, and war is on the horizon of many nations now. The forecast line is pointing down on April chart, which I shall post once I have safely secured the latest dividend payment. There seems to have been a "sea-change" in the markets. Another of my worst-case scenarios is playing out.

This is not to be considered an exercise in investment advice. Make your own decisions, please.

(Full Disclosure: We remain long, all-in, on Canadian bank equities. We view that they represent significant value, especially considering the very stretched valuations in US equities.)


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[ Apr. 24 2024 update: ] Model pointed to and market reached 70, model turned down before 70 was reached, and correctly forecast a turn. I did not believe it likely, and the turn was intense, from 70 to 63 level. Market changed, inflation came in hot, and rate-reductions pushed out to Sept-Oct. timeframe. US-election looks to be very strange - neither guy is really wanted - folks will likely hold their noses and vote for Trump, who will be likely checkmated by some force we cannot predict - we just expect it to happen. If RFK Jr. is correct, then the CIA might target & remove Trump, which is not good. Israeli mass-murder campaign in Gaza is out of control, and the Biden-Administration actions do not seem rational. They are critical, but funding Israel with weapons that enable mass-murder. We view this action as quite honestly, insane. Ukraine needs weapons for honest defense. Israel is just killing kids and girls because it is drunk on hate. This bodes badly for the future. I'll post what the models did when I have the dividend payouts in cash, in my hand.

The forecast (green line) was reflecting the possibility of a sustained upturn in share-price back in March. Now, it is pointing down.

Full Disclosure: We still remain long and effectively "All-In" on our bank stocks, as dividends are being paid, earnings are reasonable, and operational risks appear to be *MORE* than adequately managed and reserved for.

This information is not "Security or Trading Advice". It is simply an honest reporting of our research efforts.
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The difficulty of seeing the forest, for the trees, always remains... The field beyond the forest, yields. But the forest is an attractive nest of chaotic action, held in a fine ecological-orbital balance by the forces of destruction, and re-birth. If you look closely, a small maple tree, with yellow-orange leaves, which are being shed for winter, is visible in the lower-right of this image. In time, if left to nature, these trees with leaves, which are shed in Autumn, and re-created in the Spring, will replace and displace this grove of spruce-trees. But if I keep the deciduous trees cut back, and work to protect the spruce, I can keep this grove intact, and it will grow, and I can enjoy the green spruce branches in deep, cold winter.

Nature is *not* to be left to operate randomly. Our job is to manage and manipulate it, and encourage the natural outcome we wish to have take place. Left to it's own, nature simply kills everything. Humans need to understand this basic biological truth. Our job is to make nature serve us. We must not become confused, and invert this key requirement.